INDEPENDENT SCENARIO ANALYSIS · 27 OCT 2026
Price, rent and business demand.
The base cost model implies about S$820 per saleable SQFT. An initial asking-price watch band is S$750–850/SQFT, with low confidence. Actual rent and returns require assessment against official unit pricing, specifications, costs and lease terms.
No verified official price list, project budget, saleable area, actual remaining lease, ramp configuration or letting restrictions has been obtained.
Cost scenarios
| Input/result | Low | Base | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Land / GFA SQFT | S$250.09 | ||
| Construction / CFA SQM, assumed | S$2,010 | S$2,375 | S$2,740 |
| CFA/GFA, assumed | 1.05 | 1.10 | 1.15 |
| Other cost / GFA SQFT, assumed | S$50 | S$65 | S$85 |
| Saleable area/GFA, assumed | 90% | 85% | 80% |
| Pre-tax development surplus/revenue, assumed | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Cost / saleable SQFT | S$551 | S$656 | S$785 |
| Implied average price / saleable SQFT | S$649 | S$820 | S$1,046 |
Price = [250.09 + construction rate ×0.09290304 ×CFA/GFA + other cost] ÷saleable efficiency ÷(1−surplus margin). Construction inputs use the public RLB 2H2025 factory benchmark as broad context, not a project tender. CFA is not GFA; the conversion factor is assumed. Other cost is an unverified allowance covering land duty/legal, professional/authority, finance, marketing/management, green design and contingencies. Recoverable GST is excluded; irrecoverable GST and additional charges require adjustment. All GFA is assumed sold at a blended average; no retained retail income is credited.
Historical margins are an evidence gap.
The parent group was privatised in2010. Recent project-level industrial costs and realised profits were not obtained. Listed Soilbuild Construction contracting margins and old mixed residential/industrial/rental group results cannot substitute for this project’s development margin. The15%/20%/25% inputs are assumptions, not Soilbuild’s verified historical margins, accounting gross margin or net return.
The S$750–850 watch band is centred on base costs, not a probability forecast. Stress cases span roughly S$650–1,050. A hypothetical2,000SQFT (185.8SQM) unit at S$750–850 would costS$1.5m–1.7m beforeGST and buyer costs. Actual unit mix, ground-floor premiums and retail pricing differ. Cost does not ensure buyers will accept the price.
Rental evidence and2029 scenarios
Eight selected public asking records found on27Oct2026, with differing advertisement/crawl dates. Not signed leases, not verified availability, not a full-market or unit-deduplicated survey. B1 comparisons are imperfect proxies; North View is a wider northern comparison.
| Project/type | SQFT / SQM | Monthly ask | S$/SQFT/month | Qualification |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northstar @ AMK · B1 | 1,650 / 153.3 | S$4,200 | 2.55 | Lower-floor/fitted advertisement |
| Northstar @ AMK · B1 | 1,141 / 106.0 | S$3,380 | 2.96 | Upper-floor, fit-out differs |
| Northstar @ AMK · B1 | 1,140 / 105.9 | S$2,900 | 2.54 | Advertised mezzanine; area basis unverified |
| Link @ AMK · B1 | 2,153 / 200.0 | S$5,383 | 2.50 | Whole-unit ask; conditions unverified |
| Link @ AMK · B1 | 2,152 / 199.9 | S$6,500 | 3.02 | Ground floor, not typical upper unit |
| North View Bizhub · B1 | 1,733 / 161.0 | S$4,300 | 2.48 | Wider northern comparison |
| North View Bizhub · B1 | 1,755 / 163.0 | S$4,800 | 2.74 | Wider northern comparison |
| Sing Industrial Complex · B2 | 1,712 / 159.1 | S$4,300 | 2.51 | Older B2; specification differs |
Source: CommercialGuru public advertisement snapshots. Excludes tiny shared offices, stalls, open land and specialist food factories. Fit-out, service-charge and GST bases are not fully harmonised. B1 does not imply permission forB2 uses.
| 2029/actual letting scenario | Rent/SQFT/month | Assumptions |
|---|---|---|
| Slow absorption | S$2.40–2.70 | Anchor2.4–2.7, zero growth and premium |
| Base | S$2.80–3.40 | Anchor2.6–2.9, annual2%–3% for3years, premium0%–7%, rounded |
| Strong specification/demand | S$3.30–3.80 | Anchor2.8–3.0, annual3%–4%, premium8%–12%, rounded |
Future rent = selected present anchor ×(1+annual growth)^3 ×(1+new-building premium). Anchors, growth and premiums are analyst assumptions, not measured statistics or guaranteed premiums. A hypothetical2,000SQFT(185.8SQM) unit at base rent implies S$5,600–6,800/month. Completion does not equalTOP or permission to lease. Delay requires recalculation. Ordinary factory scenario, excluding retail/canteens/specialised facilities.
The rental-investment test
At S$3.10/month,90% occupancy and operating costs at20% of collected rent, annual operating income isS$26.784/SQFT. Costs provisionally cover management, maintenance, non-residential property tax and letting expenses; not an actual fee budget.
| Price/SQFT | Full-year gross yield | Simplified operating yield |
|---|---|---|
| S$650 | 5.72% | 4.12% |
| S$750 | 4.96% | 3.57% |
| S$820 | 4.54% | 3.27% |
| S$850 | 4.38% | 3.15% |
A5%–6% full-occupancy gross-yield requirement atS$2.80–3.40 rent supports aboutS$560–816/SQFT. A4%–4.5% operating-yield requirement on the base income supports aboutS$595–670/SQFT. Rental-led buyer value can therefore sit below the cost-led asking model. These ratios exclude acquisition costs, irrecoverableGST, fit-out, financing, income tax, capital expenditure and lease depletion; they are notIRR or final net returns. Tender tenure33years does not mean33years remain at delivery. Check lease start, actual delivery andJTC/developer minimum occupation, sale and letting restrictions before assuming rental investment is possible.
Demand and suitable customers
URA identifies Sengkang West, Seletar andPunggol as north-east employment nodes. JTC’s aerospace estate and2026 expansion announcements support an industrial ecosystem thesis, not a promise that large aerospace firms will occupy this building.
- Priority:existing north-east suppliers in precision parts, tooling, electronics assembly, equipment repair and industrial consumables, with real orders and approved processes.
- Compare:owner-occupiers relocating fromAMK/Hougang/Seletar and regionalB2B spare-parts distributors; validate routes, staffing, vehicles and loading.
- Cautious:rental investors who can secure a supportable entry price, adequate remaining lease and documented permission to let.
- Not assumed suitable:pure offices/retail, food processing, hazardous/heavy-polluting work, airside aviation operations, mandatory40ft access, cleanrooms or exceptional power/loading. These need specific approvals/specifications. Urgent movers need ready premises or bridging space.
Population is a labour catchment, not proof of factory demand. Test actual commutes and peak delivery routes. New industrial supply and simultaneous handovers may create vacancy and incentives. The Seletar Line is a feasibility study, not a committed amenity to price in. Screen process, critical specifications, timing, routes, full occupancy cost and lease rules before return forecasts.
Bus, rail and expressway route checks →
Evidence and next checks
Low-confidence cost and rental scenarios; stronger planning support for regional direction. Obtain official unit prices/plans, actualCFA and saleable schedule, budget, lease start/delivery, signed comparable rents and letting restrictions before commitment.
